Author: Bu Shuqing, Wallstreetcn
As Democrats won a landslide victory in the U.S. midterm elections and Republicans suffered a major setback, signs of easing have emerged in the Trump administration's military posture toward Iran.
According to a Xinhua News Agency report on Wednesday, Trump acknowledged in a telephone interview with The Wall Street Journal that the Iran war had indeed affected the Republican Party's performance in this midterm election to some extent, and had also dragged down his approval rating, but he did not regret it, saying, "(If I had to do it again) I would still do the same."
Earlier, Trump said in a media interview when discussing the situation of the U.S.-Iran war: "We seem to be getting everything we want." He then said: "I am ready, we are ready. If necessary, we can act at any time, but it may not be necessary."
Trump's remarks do not mean that the United States has abandoned the military option. He still said that the United States is prepared to respond to an escalation of the situation, but there may currently be no reason for further use of force.
As Trump and his administration officials have recently adopted a slightly more moderate tone on the Iran issue, international oil prices have also fallen significantly from last week's highs.
Iran warns the United States: restarting large-scale strikes will bring a "nightmare"
As for the results of the U.S. midterm elections, Iran interpreted them as a signal that American voters oppose the war.
Iranian Parliament Speaker and senior representative for negotiations with the United States Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said that the U.S. midterm elections showed that the American people had cast a vote "against war." He also warned that if the United States chooses to launch large-scale attacks on Iran again, it will face a "nightmare."
Although the United States has recently sent some signals of easing, the tense relationship between the United States and Iran has still not fundamentally changed. Tehran said that Iran is ready at any time to respond to new military strikes and will counter strongly.
Gulf Arab countries are also staying vigilant about the situation and have urged Trump to give diplomatic negotiations more time. The United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are all regional allies of the United States. During the most intense phase of the war, these countries were attacked thousands of times by Iranian drones and missiles.
U.S.-Iran talks still face differences, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz affects the oil market
At the diplomatic level, U.S.-Iran negotiations have made limited progress recently. Qatar and Pakistan have been mediating, but the two sides still have differences on several key issues.
Among them, Iran hopes that the United States will lift the maritime blockade on its ports, while Washington demands that Tehran make concessions on the nuclear issue.
A previous Wallstreetcn article mentioned that Qatar's mediation is still continuing, but the differences between the United States and Iran have not yet been bridged. Qatari mediators are expected to receive feedback from the United States and Iran on a new proposal within the next 36 hours.
This means that although the negotiations have not yet achieved substantive breakthroughs, diplomatic channels are still operating.
Iranian President Pezeshkian said this week that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has given the government greater authority to promote peace negotiations. This may involve some issues that Tehran previously regarded as "non-negotiable," leaving some room for a diplomatic solution.
A nine-month war is becoming the political and economic pressure Trump faces
The U.S.-Iran war began in late February this year, when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iranian targets and killed several senior officials, including former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
At the beginning of the war, U.S. officials had expected the conflict to last at most four to six weeks, but Iran's sustained ability to counterattack exceeded expectations. Tehran's counterattacks not only disrupted the Persian Gulf region, but also affected the overall situation in the Middle East.
At the same time, the rise in energy costs brought by the war is backfiring on the U.S. domestic economy. U.S. diesel prices have hit a record high, and the average gasoline price has also exceeded $4 per gallon. Soaring fuel costs have intensified Americans' dissatisfaction with the war.
This also constitutes the real dilemma Trump currently faces: on the one hand, he still insists that Iran must not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons and retains the possibility of military escalation; on the other hand, the ongoing war and high energy prices are increasing domestic political pressure.
After Democrats swept Congress in the midterm elections, Trump sent a signal to Iran to suspend military action, and U.S.-Iran diplomatic negotiations have therefore once again attracted attention. However, judging from the differences between the two sides on the maritime blockade and the nuclear issue, as well as Iran's continued military vigilance, there is still a distance before the situation truly eases.
