Bitcoin has faced a larger threat from a possible second Federal Reserve rate hike than from the Senate’s failed CLARITY Act vote, according to comments from a HashKey Group researcher shared with crypto.news.
Summary
- The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on Sep. 16.
- HashKey’s Tim Sun said an October hike could change how investors view the September decision.
- The Senate’s Sep. 15 procedural vote on the CLARITY Act failed 49–50.
- Sun identified Treasury yields, spot Bitcoin ETF flows and derivatives leverage as key factors for Bitcoin.
Tim Sun, HashKey Group’s senior researcher, told crypto.news that Bitcoin’s path now depends more on U.S. financial conditions and investment flows than on the stalled market structure bill. In particular, he said another rate increase in October could lead investors to treat September’s hike as the start of repeated tightening, rather than a single preventive move.
Sun said such a change could end Bitcoin’s current upward momentum. He pointed to long-term Treasury yields, money entering U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and the amount of leverage in derivatives markets as the main factors to follow.
Why Bitcoin faces an October rate test
The Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter percentage point to 3.75%–4.00% on Sep. 16. All 12 voting members supported the decision, according to the Fed’s policy statement. The central bank said inflation remained elevated and the increase would support its 2% inflation goal.
Sun said the September increase had largely been priced in before the announcement, helping explain why Bitcoin and the crypto market rallied afterward. The question for investors, in his view, is whether the Fed will raise rates again at its October meeting.
An October increase would affect several parts of Bitcoin’s market at once, Sun said. Higher long-term interest rates and tighter dollar liquidity could put pressure on demand, while changes in ETF flows and leveraged positions could affect the size of any price move. He considers that combination more consequential for Bitcoin than the delay to CLARITY.
The Fed’s September projections showed a median year-end policy rate of 4.1% for 2026, up from 3.8% in June. Sixteen of 18 participants placed their projected year-end rate above the current range, though their individual forecasts are not commitments to raise rates at a particular meeting. As previously covered after the Fed decision, Bitcoin initially moved toward $75,000 before returning to roughly $76,000–$76,700 within hours.
Sun also cited stronger U.S. business activity and comments from Fed officials about inflation as reasons traders are reassessing the chance of another increase. S&P Global’s preliminary U.S. composite purchasing managers’ index rose to 58.4 in September from 56.0 in August, according to earlier coverage of the reading. The same report noted that the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.20% during trading on Sep. 24.
For U.S. investors holding Bitcoin directly or through spot funds, Sun’s focus on ETF flows makes the next fund reports relevant alongside Fed policy. He said sustained inflows could support Bitcoin, while an excessive buildup of derivatives leverage would add another risk if market conditions changed.
What the CLARITY vote means for crypto firms
On Sep. 15, the Senate voted 49–50 against ending debate on a motion to take up the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. The motion needed 60 votes. Senators did not vote on final passage of the bill, which seeks to define how the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversee parts of the digital asset market.
Sun said the bill’s outcome would not substantially change Bitcoin’s own characteristics or its regulatory position. Its main purpose, he said, is to settle questions about market rules for digital assets, including where SEC authority ends and CFTC authority begins.
A long delay could still matter for the industry, according to Sun. He said unresolved rules may affect whether investors commit capital to crypto companies and infrastructure projects over several years. The concern is less about an immediate decision on which firm can operate, he added, than about the conditions for long-term investment.
After the Senate vote, U.S. regulators continued work under their existing powers. The CFTC had submitted a crypto markets measure for preliminary White House review, while the SEC issued a limited exemption concerning tokenized stock trading. Neither action supplied the full statutory market structure framework contemplated by CLARITY, as reported on the agencies’ actions.
ETF demand and Treasury yields remain in focus
Bitcoin rose after the September Fed decision, then pulled back from the $87,000 area during the following week. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded five consecutive sessions of net inflows through Sep. 23, although flows had varied sharply earlier in the month. Sun has said short-term ETF flows can follow Bitcoin’s price rather than reliably signal its next move.
That distinction matters to his October assessment: a run of inflows shows buyers have continued to use the funds, but it does not establish how they would respond to another rate increase. Similarly, the September rally followed a hike that Sun said traders already expected; it does not establish how Bitcoin would respond if investors began pricing in consecutive increases.
During the week ended Sep. 18, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $6.1 million net, despite receiving $433 million on the final trading day alone. The subsequent positive sessions coincided with Bitcoin’s advance toward $87,000.
Meanwhile, the Fed’s September projections put the median policy rate at 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027, compared with June forecasts of 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively. Individual officials submitted those estimates based on their views of appropriate policy at the time of the meeting.
